Bitcoin to the moon? It definitely seems like it. The largest and oldest cryptocurrency is closing in on its lifetime peak, with the price of BTC surging above $65,000 on Monday. The surge comes ahead of the anticipated halving event and soaring inflows on spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to pseudonymous Dutch quant analyst PlanB, the creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) model for BTC’s price, the bull market has officially started, and powerful price pumps and volatility are commonplace during this phase.
Bitcoin Inches Towards $69K All-Time Zone
Bitcoin began the week with a bang on March 4, climbing above the $65K mark after closing its greenest weekly candle ever.
BTC is trading hands for $65,131 at the time of publication — a more than respectable seven-day jump of over 27%, according to CoinGecko. The growing interest in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — especially BlackRock’s IBIT — has helped propel the biggest virtual coin up. As of March 1, the IBIT smashed a record by entering the $10 billion assets under management (AUM) club — roughly 39 trading days since its debut. This marks an extraordinary feat in the institutional adoption of crypto.
Another pivotal factor driving Bitcoin’s price is the imminent block subsidy halving. The halving event, scheduled for next month, will reduce miners’ rewards by 50%. Some market pundits claim that this is a bullish indicator for Bitcoin: data indicates that the price of BTC has historically risen parabolically following each prior event. This early upsurge ahead of the halving suggests that investors are preemptively positioning themselves for the anticipated price appreciation.
Bitcoin, as a result, is now not far from recapturing its November 2021 historic high of $69,044. BTC is presently within 5.5% of that milestone, in fact. It certainly feels like a bull rally, but how long will that feeling last?
‘Face-Melting FOMO’: Massive Rally And 30% Dips
Meanwhile, stock-to-flow creator PlanB claims that the Bitcoin accumulation phase and the easy BTC buying opportunities have concluded.
In a post on the X social media platform referencing the S2F chart, PlanB declared that the bull run has officially begun. “If history is any guide, we will see ~10 months of face-melting [fear of missing out] FOMO: extreme price pumps combined with multiple -30% drops,” the analyst continued.
RED DOT !!
Accumulation phase has ended: no more easy buying opportunities in orderly and slowly increasing markets.
Bull market has started. If history is any guide, we will see ~10 months of face melting fomo: extreme price pumps combined with multiple -30% drops. Enjoy!
pic.twitter.com/8MyZJUSUlb
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 1, 2024
Although the S2F price projection model became popular during the 2021 bull run, it’s far from being a perfect BTC price predictor. As per the chart, Bitcoin should have hit $100,000 in August 2021, when the OG crypto was hovering around the $45,000 level. Ethereum wunderkind Vitalik Buterin has also lambasted the S2F model for giving holders a “false sense of certainty.”
Nonetheless, as anticipation intensifies of what will come next for Bitcoin, bears tacitly accept that there may be nothing hindering BTC from heading into price discovery.
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