The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is widely believed to be gearing to greenlight spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) to trade in the U.S. this week. As the crypto world awaits the SEC’s go-ahead, multinational bank Standard Chartered predicted on Jan.8 that the Bitcoin price will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Although the SEC has not yet indicated publicly how it may rule on the latest swath of applications, the amount of feedback it has provided and the amended filings suggest the nearly-a-dozen applications will soon be cleared for takeoff, likely opening doors for widespread adoption of crypto.
Spot ETFs To Attract $50-$100 Billion In Inflows In 2024
Standard Chartered expects spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds to pull in a staggering $50-100 billion worth of inflows in 2024 if they are approved and become successful in the U.S.
In a Monday note to investors, the bank’s head of digital assets, Geoff Kendrick and precious metals analyst Suki Cooper compared the potential launch of spot BTC ETFs to gold exchange-traded products and how they revolutionized investor access to the precious metal. The bank specifically cited the first gold ETF in the U.S., SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which went live in 2004 and is now the biggest physically backed gold ETF worldwide.
According to Kendrick and Cooper, spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will be a “watershed moment” for normalizing Bitcoin participation. It’s believed that spot ETF products will allow institutional and everyday retail investors to gain exposure to the price of the world’s oldest and largest cryptocurrency without having to create wallets or otherwise deal with exchanges.
The banking executives expect roughly 437,000 and 1.32 million new Bitcoins to be held in US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs by the end of this year, which equates to between $50-100 billion in inflows.
BTC Primed To Hit $200K By Year-End 2025
Standard Chartered made its first bullish Bitcoin prediction in April 2023, predicting that the flagship crypto would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. The British multinational bank now thinks BTC could top $200,000 by the end of 2025. Kendrick said the 2025 prediction is in line with their previous $100K estimate.
“If ETF-related inflows materialize as we expect, we think an end-2025 level closer to USD 200,000 is possible,” Kendrick opined.
The $200,000 price target means that Bitcoin must rise about 4.3 times from its current level of $46,695. However, Standard Chartered pointed out that the price of gold multiplied by this 4.3 figure around seven to eight years after GLD was launched.
“We expect Bitcoin to enjoy price gains of a similar magnitude as a result of US spot ETF approval, but we see these gains materializing over a shorter (one- to two-year) period, given our view that the BTC ETF market will develop more quickly,” the executives explained.
In addition to the potential looming approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S., the Bitcoin rewards halving — which has historically increased BTC prices exponentially — is scheduled for April.