Bitcoin’s Historical Bull Run Analysis Points To Potential Peak In October 2025

Bitcoin can effectively prolong its bull run in two ways, but they are both bearish

Bitcoin continued to surge higher on Thursday, following a surprise recovery on Monday, which was preceded by weak volatility for most of last week.

Bitcoin was trading at $44,240 at press time, marking a 3.43% increase over the past 24 hours. The broader market has also mirrored this growth, with top 10 cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, BNB, XRP, and Solana experiencing notable increases in the range of 2.28% to 8.6%.

Meanwhile, amidst this resurgence, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez has put forth a compelling perspective on Bitcoin’s future trajectory. In a tweet, Martinez drew parallels between the current market dynamics and historical bull runs, with his analysis suggesting that Bitcoin’s next peak could potentially materialize in next year’s fall.

“If we mirror BTC’s past bull runs (2015-2018 & 2018-2022) from their respective market bottoms, projections suggest the next market peak could land around October 2025. That means BTC still has 700 days of bullish momentum ahead!” Wrote Ali.

Notably, reflecting on historical patterns, the surge from $1,100 to nearly $20,000 in 2017 showcased a remarkable 20x increase within 12 months, driven by increased public awareness and retail investor participation. The subsequent years saw significant fluctuations, with the 2020 surge leading to an all-time high of over $68,500 in November 2021.

However, challenges arose as the Bitcoin hash rate plummeted due to China’s decision to shut down mining operations, contributing to a subsequent price drop. The year 2022 further brought about a prolonged bearish trend, with the price dropping to as low as $15,700 due to investor concerns following the collapse of FTX and other high-flying crypto firms.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin staged an impressive recovery in 2023, driven by revitalized investor confidence and the anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. Year to date, the cryptocurrency has surged by over 170%, outperforming traditional assets such as gold, the US dollar, and the S&P 500 by a significant margin.

Adding depth to the argument on Bitcoin’s potential surge, indicators such as the Puell Multiple and the MVRV Z-score indicate potential upside. The Puell Multiple, standing at 1.53, suggests room for growth, especially after Bitcoin’s upcoming reward halving in March 2024. The MVRV Z-score of 1.6 signals that Bitcoin is not overvalued, supporting a continued rally into the next year.

In the short term, if Bitcoin can maintain its position above the $40,000 support level, a bullish run is anticipated to persist, with a strong likelihood of testing the $47,000 to $50,000 range.

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