If historical data can predict the future, then we are on the cusp of a massive bull run in 10 weeks after the 3rd Bitcoin halving.
Analyst Josh Rager posted a Bitcoin chart with emphasis on when the halving took place. Rager took note of the candle on the 10th-week post-halving.
The chart revealed that Bitcoin halving is usually followed by a price decline. But in the 10th week after the 2nd halving, BTC’s price moved steadily in the following 2 years, peaking at nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
Rager concluded that the 2016 halving led to over 3000 percent gains in 525 days.
While the analyst did not put a price prediction for the third halving, many were skeptical of the same thing happening this time around. “How will it happen if the whole world economy is going into recession?” said one user on Twitter. To which Rager replied that it would happen just like what the U.S. stocks are experiencing right now.
Rager’s reply rings true. Tesla (TSLA) peaked at $1,794 in July. This, despite ‘not-that-great’ Q2 2020 results for the automaker. Commodities like gold and silver are performing beyond expectations. The stimulus or cash proffered by the government of various countries is finding its way to the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
Macro investor Raoul Pal’s recent report “The Unfolding,” noted three phases of what he says would be the biggest financial crisis – panic, hope, and insolvency. Panic is the liquidity phase. Hope is the correction phase. Insolvency is the brutal phase that will change even the system itself. In April 2020, Pal concluded we are in the panic phase.
Billionaire Mark Cuban, on the other hand, remarked that the bubble which led to the dot-com crash in the late 90s had a built-up of around 5 years. He noted that the recent stock rally looked similar to that. “This is not a fundamentals market anymore since the Fed intervened,” Cuban referred to the market being momentum-based at the moment, chasing performance rather than value (of the company) while the Fed intervention referred to the printing of money to keep the U.S. economy afloat.
Going back to Rager’s point, his chart did not put a percentage mark on the eventual gains after the 3rd halving, but the path going upward is not as steep as it was in the second halving. The analyst knew perfectly that today’s a different situation because of the pandemic and global recession. Still, he expects Bitcoin to move up. “I don’t know if that is 25k or 50k. All we can do is trade it accordingly,” he concluded.
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