Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030.
- The former BitMEX CEO says nation-state adoption of Bitcoin will drive the price ascent.
- Bearish short-term outlooks for Bitcoin still dominate sentiments.
Bitcoin believers remain confident that in the long-term, the pioneer crypto will skyrocket despite current market troubles. For Arthur Hayes, the founder and former CEO of BitMEX, Bitcoin is on its way to reaching a price of $1 million by 2030.
Nation-state adoption of Bitcoin is inevitable according to Hayes
Writing in a Medium blog post, Hayes explained that global economic trends and geopolitical factors will drive Bitcoin to his colossal price target. Hayes paints a gloomy picture of where government policies are driving the economies.
The policies of governments since after the pandemic in 2020 have “entrenched” inflation. But things could get worse he noted. In what he calls “the doom loop,” Hayes predicts that Western economies, particularly the EU will collapse.
The bloc will become unsustainable for several reasons including their sanctioning of Russia, their major source of fossil fuel used for generation. This decision that will lead to their implosion is however good news for Bitcoin as it emphasizes the need for a permissionless currency.
“Unfortunately (but thankfully, if you are one of Satoshi’s disciples), the West’s decision to financially cancel the largest global energy and commodity producer is the biggest advertisement for the existential need of Bitcoin in a sovereign’s currency savings portfolio,” he said.
Hayes expects that as nation-states see this advantage, Bitcoin will be able to “infect” their portfolios. He adds that countries that adopt Bitcoin will also make more favorable policies for the asset.
They will also be part of the solution to concerns that Bitcoin may go obsolete. Nation-states using Bitcoin will offset possible stagnation that the network may suffer due to the strong conviction of its HODLers to not sell.
Notably, Hayes’ outlook will benefit gold as well. He expects gold to reach $20,000 once inflation gets to a point where the US Federal Reserve has to implement Yield Curve Control (YCC) – where the Fed is redirected from fighting inflation to accomodating it.
Bitcoin still struggling with short-term selloffs
Hayes’ expectation for the price of Bitcoin resonates strongly with those of other analysts. ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, as well as, Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz have recently predicted that Bitcoin will rise exponentially in the next few years.
At the moment, however, the pioneer cryptocurrency has to swing wildly in price. Bitcoin is trading at $38,238, down 1.57% in the last 24 hours at the time of writing.
Several analysts including Arthur Hayes currently hold bearish short-term outlooks for Bitcoin due to the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. In a previous blog post, Hayes maintained that Bitcoin could tank to around $30,000 by June.
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